Economic Analysis

https://economicanalysis1and2.netlify.app/ ....Try it here

This page is a training calculator for financial consequence of failure. It turns a loss-of-containment event into a money total, FC_total, by adding five cost pieces: repairing the failed component, repairing surrounding equipment in the damage area, lost production while the unit is down, potential injury costs, and environmental cleanup if a lasting liquid spill is credible. That total is what you would later multiply by probability of failure to talk about financial risk.

You start by choosing Level 1 or Level 2. The money maths is the same in both modes. What changes is where the consequence areas come from. Level 1 expects the simpler Level 1 areas for equipment damage and personnel injury. Level 2 expects the final Level 2 areas from the more detailed area model, and it lets you record detection and isolation class for teaching. Detection and isolation mainly shrink the areas upstream; this calculator does not invent a second reduction if you have already pasted final areas.

The first block builds component damage cost, FC_cmd. You pick an equipment row so the tool can load example hole-size repair costs, outage days, and generic failure frequencies. Those four hole sizes (small, medium, large, rupture) matter because a small leak is often cheap to fix and a rupture is not. The tool forms a probability-weighted average of the hole costs using the GFFs, then multiplies by matcost (material of construction relative to carbon steel) and costfactor (to move the old example dollars toward today’s local repair costs). Prefer real plant costs when you have them; the tables are screening teaching defaults.

The second block covers surrounding equipment and business interruption. Equipment damage area CA_cmd times unit equipment cost density equipcost gives FC_affa. Component downtime is a GFF-weighted average of the outage-day table, scaled by Outage_mult if real repairs take longer than the examples. Surrounding-equipment downtime is estimated from how large FC_affa is, using the log relationship in the methodology, because bigger collateral damage usually means a longer outage. Those two outage times, times daily lost production prodcost, become FC_prod, which is often the dominant term on a high-margin unit.

The third block adds injury and optional environmental cost. Injury area CA_inj, people density, and cost per serious injury combine into FC_inj. Environmental cost is only for liquids that are unlikely to evaporate away or burn off; release mass per hole size is converted to spill volume after evaporation, weighted by GFF, and multiplied by cleanup cost per barrel.

On the right, results update live: each FC term, the outage days, the worked equations, and a teaching “band” for order-of-magnitude discussion. The other tabs are classroom support. Data tables shows Tables 4.15, 4.16, and 4.17 with notes. Training guide walks the ideas and formula sheet. L1 vs L2 keeps the boundary clear: area modelling first, money modelling second. Every ℹ opens a short lesson on that input or formula so the page can be used as a training tool, not only as a black-box calculator.